One of the biggest problems that all technical traders / system developers face, is the fact that back testing is done on historical data. We also know that past performance is no guarantee of future performance and price patterns that happened in the past may not repeat in the future. Thus it can easily happen that a system which appeared to be profitable on historical data, suddenly starts losing money in real time.
The flowchart below explains how the Grail Genetic Optimizer (GGO) and Grail Walk-Forward Optimizer (GWFO) can be used to solve this problem. Using GGO&GWFO together provide you with a complete system evaluation methodology that will prevent you from start trading a system in real time, unless it has been properly tested and validated. GGO&GWFO will also help you to determine the most robust parameter combination/s.
Some feedback from users:
"I started using GGO and GWFO last November and after the trial period and a month on lease I gladly bought the Suite. I must say, in the last few years,
nothing has improved my bottom line and knowledge of how to create a better system then your products. My systems 'before Grail' looked great yet
consistently traded badly in real time.
Besides loosing lots of bucks! I began doubting my original concepts and take on the market since the systems were falling apart and showing me I was wrong. Being a slow study... I continued to add more and more complicated filters and conditions and with increasingly detailed and more thorough optimizing with TS...you guessed it...I looked better and better and traded worse and worse...I was developing and throwing out decent strategies left and right.
Then your products came along. The stress testing and walk forward ability are amazing. Immediately I saw my mistakes and they were easy to correct. Most of my take on the market was fine, it was the trying to get perfect results on past data that actually prevented any robustness going forward. Now my systems are a lot simpler and I'm making decent returns. I'm no trading maestro but I now know what to expect and I get it. Better to have reasonable expectations that get filled consistently then unrealistic ones that always fall short." - Dave Klinger
"The GGO/GWFO suite (along with the GSB) has given me the fastest software payback time I've ever experienced. I had already done everything that GGO does, but by brute force, weekend-long optimizations, multiple manually invoked walk-forward runs, Excel spreadsheets the size of Montana requiring extensive autofilters and/or macro programming, special-purpose software packages costing five times as much as GGO and of course, thousands of dollars wasted in dust-gathering "shelfware."
I especially appreciate the ability to take a market, start from "ground zero" and rapidly prototype a strategy using a remarkable piece of code with the innocent-sounding name "Genetic System Builder" * that can do in half an hour what I had dreamed of doing for years, namely test millions of combinations of systems (or genetic hybrids of systems) until a good model fit is discovered for that market. And then set a few strings of switches and parameters in the same piece of Easy Language code and (walk-forward) optimize and run it on real markets.
There has been a steady stream of straightforward-to-install bug fixes and enhancements from Technovest since I downloaded my first versions of the GGO suite. This stuff runs like you sampled (genetically, of course!) the wishes of experienced system traders and then built the product "like that."
Dank u wel (thank you very much)!" - John Fanning
* Note: Genetic System Builder is the predecessor of the Computer Assisted Strategy Builder (CASB)
"When I was live automated
trading my strategies before I learned of this (The Grail) testing/development
process, the one thing I did not know was "Should I weather this drawdown,
or is the strategy no good?"
Now I trade my systems with confidence. I know what to expect, and if the DD is within range, I am not worried (well, not too worried...who likes a DD!)
This product is Indispensable, in my judgment. I wouldn't trade without it!" - Gordon Lantz
"The software (GGO and GWFO) that I
purchased from your company has changed my life. .....
The new tutorials, although somewhat verbose, really helped me understand how to harness the power of the Grail.....
The reason my life has changed is that I now have confidence in my strategy that I simply did not have before. ....
The most obvious benefit of your software is the amount of time it saves.
You can do in a week what it would have taken years to do in TradeStation, and centuries to do with Excel.
But don't undersell your customers on the psychological benefits of trading a system that passes Grail's demanding statistical analyses.
The Grail Suite is by far the most expensive piece of software that I have ever bought, but it's worth every penny.
I'll never trade another system that has not been put through the wringer of the Grail products." - Zak Perryman